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CEA Overall Economic Growth is Moving in the Right Direction Although its Pace is Still Below What the Economy Needs But a Pace That is Expected to Pick up in Response to the Ongoing Reforms;

Dated:- 3-9-2015 - Says as Per the Recently Released First Quarter GDP Data of the Current Financial Year 2015-16, Price-Wise, the Economy Appears to Be in or Close to Deflation Territory The Chief Economic Adviser Dr Arvind Subramanian in a Statement with regard to recently released First Quarter GDP Data of the Current Financial Year 2015-16 said here today that At a time of sharp declines in the price of oil, which led to sharp changes in Indirect Tax Collections and subsidy payments, nationa .....

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axes less subsidies. The issue that arises is how to derive estimates of NIT at constant prices given that the data are collected at current prices. The procedure followed by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), which is entirely consistent with recommended international practice for quarterly estimates, can be intuitively understood as follows. Under this procedure, indirect taxes are assumed to grow in line with the relevant tax base, which consists of the value of imports, manufacturing, and .....

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vements in collection efficiency-not being fully captured in measured GDP. Since NIT increased substantially-by 40 percent in nominal terms in the latest quarter-the GDP estimates will have to be interpreted with particular caution because of the commensurate potential for understating GDP growth. With this as background, we can turn to the highlights of the latest GDP estimates. The most striking implication of the latest GDP estimates relates to prices. Prices, measured by the deflator for GVA .....

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