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Dr. Sanjiv Agarwal By: Dr. Sanjiv Agarwal
February 6, 2023
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The Economic Survey comes when India celebrates 75th year of its independence. According to Economic Survey 2023-24, India is back to pre-pandemic growth with broad based recovery. Indian services sector continues to the source of strength with 9% growth in current year. Tax buoyancy is now being witnessed under GST regime.  

Further, despite the three shocks of COVID-19, Russian-Ukraine conflict and the Central Banks across economies led by Federal Reserve responding with synchronised policy rate hikes to curb inflation, leading to appreciation of US Dollar and the widening of the Current Account Deficits (CAD) in net importing economies, agencies worldwide continue to project India as the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5-7.0 per cent in FY 2023.

India is likely to witness GDP growth of 6.0 per cent to 6.8 per cent in 2023-24, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally. Economic survey 2022-23 projects a baseline GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in real terms in FY24. Economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent (in real terms) for the year ending march 2023, this follows an 8.7 per cent growth in the previous financial year. The optimistic growth forecasts stem from a number of positives like the rebound of private consumption given a boost to production activity, higher Capital Expenditure (Capex), near-universal vaccination coverage enabling people to spend on contact-based services, such as restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, and cinemas, as well as the return of migrant workers to cities to work in construction sites leading to a significant decline in housing market inventory, the strengthening of the balance sheets of the Corporates, a well-capitalised public sector banks ready to increase the credit supply and the credit growth to the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector etc.

The Indian economy has become a lot more formalized as reflected in the EPFO membership more than doubling to 27 crore, and 74,00 crore digital payments of Rs. 126 lakh crore through UPI in 2022.

The Survey states with optimism that Indian economy appears to have moved on after its encounter with the pandemic, staging a full recovery in FY22 ahead of many nations and positioning itself to ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path in FY23. Yet in the current year, India has also faced the challenge of reining in inflation that the European strife accentuated.

The factors like monetary tightening by the RBI, the widening of the CAD, and the plateauing growth of exports have essentially been the outcome of geopolitical strife in Europe. As these developments posed downside risks to the growth of the Indian economy in FY23, many agencies worldwide have revised their growth forecast of the Indian economy downwards. For fiscal 2023-24, growth will be supported by solid domestic demand and a pickup in capital investment. It says that aided by healthy financials, incipient signs of a new private sector capital formation cycle are visible and more importantly, compensating for the private sector’s caution in capital expenditure, the government raised capital expenditure substantially.

India: Economic Survey 2023-24

Following are the highlights of Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on 31.01.2023 :

  • Economy likely to grow slow @ 6.5% in financial year 2023-24 as compared to 7% in financial year 2022-23 and 8.7% in the year 2021-22
  • India may remain the fastest growing major economy in the world
  • GDP growth expected to be 11% in financial year 2024 in nominal terms. Real GDP growth expected to be 6-6.8% in financial year 2024; growth of Indian economy driven by higher capex, private consumption, stronger corporate balance sheets, credit growth etc.
  • Economic growth to be boosted from the expansion of public digital platforms and measures to boost manufacturing output.
  • The Indian economy is well placed to grow faster in the coming decade once the global shocks of the pandemic and the spike in commodity prices in 2022 fade away.
  • Current account deficit may widen inflation and may continue. Challenge to rupee depreciating further
  • Slower world growth expected
  • India faced extra ordinary set of challenges better than other economies
  • GST paid by small businesses has risen and crossed pre-pandemic levels
  • Buoyancy in direct and indirect taxes GST has stabilized as a major revenue source for Central and State Governments with gross collection rising by 24.8% on YoY basis from April – December, 2022.
  • Inflation and borrowing costs may remain higher and longer
  • Revenue has fared better during financial year 2023 facilitated by recovery in economic activities.
  • Gross NPA ratio of banks has fallen to a low of 5, lowest in last 7 years
  • Services sector expected to grow over 9% in financial year 2023
  • India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow @ 18% p.a.
  • The supply response of the industry to the demand stimulus has been robust.
  • Digital platforms are transforming India’s financial services.

(Source: Economic Survey 2023-24)

General & Economy Highlights of Union Budget 2023-24

  • Seven priorities of Budget emphasizes inclusive development, youth power, financial sector, green growth, unleashing potential, infrastructure & investment, inclusive development and reaching the last rule
  • Vision for Amrit kaal to include opportunities for citizens with focus on youth, growth and job creation and strong & stable macro –economic environment.
  • Increase in expenditure on health and education
  • Incentives to boost investment in infrastructure and production capacity will lead to growth and create employment 
  • Targeted fiscal deficit to be below 4.5% by FY 2025-26
  • Setting up of central data processing centre for faster handling of administrative work under the Companies Act, 2013.
  • Improved asset quality on banks with lower NPA’s
  • Focus on enhancing opportunity for private investment in infrastructure
  • Special saving schemes for women and senior citizens

(Source: Union Budget 2023)


By: Dr. Sanjiv Agarwal - February 6, 2023



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