The thirty fourth meeting of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Monetary Policy was held on October 23, 2013 in the run up to the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2013-14 on October 29, 2013. The main points of discussion in the meeting are set out below.
- Some Members were of the view that the global economy is showing signs of improvement, especially in the UK, the US, the euro area and Japan. In several advanced economies, however, unemployment is persisting at elevated levels. Members felt that the overall global economic outlook is tilted towards the downside. However, weaker global recovery is unlikely to translate into softening of international commodity prices, including that of oil.
- Members were unanimous that growth impulses in the Indian economy were weakening, especially in the industrial and services sectors. In particular, the capital goods industry’s order book position has stalled with inventory levels having come down and along with production cuts, staff lay-off have also started. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have been severely affected. While activity in the second half of 2013-14 could be a little better than in the first half, Members believed that the overall momentum of growth would be low. Some Members were of the view that the risk of slippage on the fiscal deficit remains, while others felt that the Government might contain the deficit to committed levels by cutting down expenditure, but this could have an adverse impact on growth. If, on the other hand, the fiscal deficit overshot by a sizeable amount as the increase in diesel prices by Rs. 5 as proposed by Parikh committee was lagging, it could reflect in an increased borrowing programme, hurting growth by impeding the flow of credit to productive sectors.
- Some Members were of the view that inflation is not the immediate concern. Their outlook on inflation was optimistic due to various factors - arresting of the rupee’s depreciation, softening of global commodity prices and a good monsoon which augurs well for agriculture. The wholesale price index (WPI) inflation excluding food and fuel was around 2 per cent. Even though consumer price index (CPI) inflation excluding food and fuel was high, it also reflected, in part, the presence of fuel items in transport and communication. Aggressive expansion of the service tax net has also kept services price inflation elevated. Wages have over-corrected since nominal rural wage growth has been faster than food price inflation. The vegetable price shock is likely to be temporary, and may not be a major source of second round effects. Other Members believed that inflation risks are high as the CPI inflation - both headline and excluding food and fuel - are elevated. The latest CPI reading showed very high month-on-month momentum across all items. Going forward, inflation could pick up further as the exchange rate pass-through takes place. Despite being a good year for agricultural production, food price pressures might persist due to increases in the minimum support price, excess procurement and large stocks. The beneficial impact of a good monsoon on food inflation, especially on fruits and vegetables, was so far not in evidence; any positive impact might get offset by real wage growth. According to them, the wage price spiral is contributing to inflation in a significant way and inflation expectations had got entrenched at elevated levels.
- External sector risks, according to some Members, are low because of the postponement of tapering of quantitative easing, though this hiatus could be short-lived. Other Members were of the view that the risks to CAD remain elevated. Since GDP is expected to be low, the sheer size of CAD as a ratio to GDP might be higher. Members cautioned that tapering induced shocks in the form of capital outflows would demand immediate action from the Reserve Bank. If mere announcement of tapering could raise US yields by about 100 basis points by August 2013 and give rise to large volatility in the exchange rate of the rupee, preparedness to deal with actual tapering would be critical, particularly in view of the composition of the CAD. If a high CAD is associated with excess consumption demand (decline in saving) rather than higher investment, the adjustment process may become sharper. Members preferred that market forces should determine the exchange rate and believed some depreciation was good to support export growth. Some Members were also of the opinion that with the exchange rate regaining stability, the time was opportune to accumulate foreign exchange reserves.
- On monetary policy measures, all Members unanimously wanted to restore symmetry in the policy corridor - with the MSF rate at 100 basis points above the policy repo rate. Expressing concerns on inflation as also on the external front, four Members supported raising the repo rate by 25 basis points while bringing down the MSF rate by the same amount. One of these Members also recommended an increase in access to the LAF window through overnight repos to 0.6-0.7 per cent of banks’ net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) to reduce the overall cost of borrowing for banks. Two Members wanted no change in the repo rate. These Members were of the view that since an increase in the repo rate would have a negative impact on growth, no effect on food or overall inflation and only a limited effect in terms of bringing down inflation expectations, it is better to keep the operating rate low to support growth. To make the corridor symmetric, this implied a reduction in the MSF rate by 50 basis points. One Member, deriving comfort from low WPI inflation excluding food and fuel, advised the Reserve Bank to address growth risks and to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points, along with normalising the corridor width to 100 basis points. The Member also emphasised the need to ease access to working capital loans for SMEs so as to support exports, in particular, and growth, in general.
- The meeting was chaired by Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor. Other internal Members present were: Dr. Urjit R. Patel (Vice-Chairman), Dr. K.C. Chakrabarty, Shri Anand Sinha and Shri Harun R. Khan, Deputy Governors; and external Members present were: Shri Y.H. Malegam, Prof. Indira Rajaraman, Dr. Shankar Acharya, Dr. Arvind Virmani, Prof. Ashima Goyal, Prof. Errol D’Souza and Dr. Chetan Ghate. Officials of the Reserve Bank Shri Deepak Mohanty, Dr. Michael D. Patra, Shri B.M. Misra, Dr. B.K. Bhoi and Shri Pardeep Maria were in attendance.
Since February 2011, the Reserve Bank has been placing the main points of discussions of the meetings of TAC on Monetary Policy in the public domain with a lag of roughly four weeks after the meeting.
Sangeeta Das
Director
|
